The proportion of the global economy devoted to health, wellness, and prevention is continuing to expand. Americans are taking greater responsibility for the costs and decision-making associated with their health care, and are turning to the broader marketplace for solutions. At the same time, the traditional health care industry is under pressure to reduce costs, improve health outcomes, and increase access. Employer-sponsored health insurance premiums keep rising, outpacing wage increases and creating insecurity. Some say a crisis is looming; certainly, the facts are sobering.

The United States faces a crushing disease burden: 130 million people suffer from chronic diseases; 71 million people are obese; and given current trends, an estimated one in every three 8-year¬old children today will develop diabetes over the course of their lives. Against this backdrop, our current health care insurance system is unsustainable: nearly 30% of the population of the United States is un- or under-insured; rising unemployment resulting from our current economic crisis will push this figure even higher. By 2020, the population of Americans aged 65 or older is projected to reach 55 million, but Medicare is expected to go bankrupt in 2019. Overall, health care spending is projected to reach 20% of the Gross Domestic Product within the decade.

Yet despite these grim realities, tremendous potential exists for innovation in drug development and medical technology advancement that will positively impact quality of life and longevity. Personalized medicine, health-aware environments, and new mobile platforms for health will transform the landscape in which our current health care system operates. Meanwhile, new forms of engagement, the emergence of new information authorities, and evolving definitions of food and wellness will continue to influence how consumers think about their health. With a system under pressure to change on many fronts and the elections in November 2008, health care will undoubtedly be at the top of the national agenda in the months to come.

In 2009, health care will also be at the top of our agenda. The Institute for the Future (IFTF) will undertake a year-long research program to explore future directions in health and health care in the United States. As we look out over the next decade to 2020, we will work with IFTF’s Foresight-Insight-Action framework to guide our journey.

Please contact Dawn Alva at dalva@iftf.org or 650-233-9585 for more details.